The 2013 Packers: Analysis and Predictions

The Packers finished with a healthy 11-5 record last year and could have done better. Many believe they threw the final game of the season against Minnesota and I find it really easy to buy into this theory. A loss to the Vikings in week 17 meant keeping the Bears out of the playoffs and avoiding another post-bye week blowout like the year before (20-37, Giants). This strategy didn't make much of a difference in the end; however, as the Packers won a playoff game they wouldn't have had to play against the Vikings the following week, then proceeded to be exposed by the Niners in the Divisional round. This means the Packers were essentially a 12-4 team, 13-3 if you consider the blown call by the replacement refs in the Seattle game. A 13-3 record with an average defense and under-performing offense........it's difficult to believe they won't have at least 13 wins this year.

The Packers have been reminded of a very important lesson these past couple of seasons; winning the Super Bowl is not about as much about talent as it is about matchups and momentum. 

Schedule

By no means do the Packers have an easy schedule. In fact, they have the 6th strongest schedule, according to NFL.com (.533 SOS rating), based on the performances of their opponents in 2012. Their opponents include the Super Bowl champion Ravens, the NFC Conference champion 49ers and, of course, 6 games in what could be the toughest division in the NFL. Yet, the Packers have one major advantage: no back-to-back road games for the first time in decades. This will help them to avoid losing streaks and maintain positive momentum.

Improved Defense
The pass rush has to be better this year. With the return of Nick Perry and the addition of Datone Jones, the upgraded front 7 should be able to take some pressure off the secondary. Perhaps the biggest question mark for the defense is their ability to stop the read-option. They should be slightly less taken aback by it this year, as they have had all of the off-season, training camp and preseason to prepare. Also, they have an abundance of film from last year on how not to stop it. Perhaps the most important variable in the Packers' formula to counter the read-option is the play of MLB Brad Jones. He is replacing Desmond Bishop, who has proven to be a stout defender, in more than one sense of the word. While he is very effective against the run, he is far too slow for the QB spy role, which is necessary against the read-option. Brad Jones is the faster linebacker and should do a better job keeping contain on mobile quarterbacks.

Balanced Offense
Last year, when Aaron Rodgers was asked about the Packers' need to improve the running game, he responded, "Do we need to? I think this is a pass happy league, so I think it's got to start with the pass with us." Lately, however, he has acknowledged the greater need for a running game, both to neutralize the pass rush of opposing defenses and provide another dimension of play-making potential. 2nd round draft pick Eddie Lacy could give the Packers' what they only had a glimpse of last season with Cedric Benson: a strong power running game.

Improved Offensive Line?
Aaron Rodgers was the most sacked QB last season, so it's hard to imagine some progress won't be made by the offensive line in 2013. But I believe there is room for a good deal more optimism. The Packers made improving the offensive line a priority during this year's draft, without sacrificing picks in the early rounds and drafting guys too early. Brian Bulaga's season ending injury, though seemingly detrimental to the offense, may have very little effect on the overall performance of the line. Despite his elite potential, Bulaga gave a very inconsistent performance in 2012, allowing too many edge rushers to beat him. Also, he only played 9 games last year due to an injury that has since been reaggravated. This season, the Packers planned to have Bulaga start at left tackle, but Bulaga's injury has allowed rookie David Bakhtiari to take over on the blind side. Bakhtiari has impressed thus far in pass protection and could be a positive difference maker for the offense. My favorite change to the O-line is the moving of Josh Sitton from right guard to left guard, which allows him to help the rookie protect against the NFL's better pass rushers.


Bold Predictions
Since I did not make my Packers' Super Bowl win prediction public before the 2010-2011 season, few believed me after the fact. So, here are all of my predictions for this season:


Packers will dominate the NFC North and go 5-1 (Not the boldest of predictions, but all the new talent in this division will prove to provide very little meaningful resistance against the Packers.

Packers will go 14-2, losing only to the 49ers and once to the Lions (in Detroit of course).

Super Bowl: Packers over Broncos in a Super Bowl XXXII rematch (Someone may have to hold Elway back to keep him off the field)

Other Predictions Around the League
The Ravens will not repeat or even win the AFC North

The Bears will again miss the playoffs despite a strong regular season performance

The Seahawks and Cowboys will make-up the NFC Wildcard picture

The Colts and Ravens will earn the AFC Wildcard spots

Division winners:

AFC East - Patriots
AFC North - Bengals
AFC South - Texans
AFC West - Broncos

NFC East - Redskins
NFC North - Packers
NFC South - Falcons
NFC West - 49ers


-De

Catch by Transitive Property of Possession?

I don't want to talk about the play. I have to talk about the play and I've finally calmed down enough to do so. When I sat down to write this, my plan was to only write about the residual effects of the call, but there has been so much false information floating out there, I have to sort some things out in writing to at least clear my own head.

First of all, there is no controversy about whether it was a touchdown or not. I don't want to go through the play frame by frame, because I know the large majority of you either watched it or heard a hundred different renditions of what happened. It is painfully clear a touchdown should not have been called, especially now that the rules allow for all scoring plays to be reviewed. If you would like a more detailed account and analysis of the play, this edition of Sports Science is one of the best I've seen.

Sorry about the awful quality, this is only complete version I could find:

"After further review, it was a fucking interception!" A catch in the NFL requires three things: (1) Secure control of the ball. (2) Touch the ground in-bounds with both feet or any part of the body. (3) Maintain control of the ball throughout the catch. As the video explains, Jennings was the first to establish two points of contact on the ball with control; the basic definition of possession. Additionally, Jennings sustained possession by following through with the catch all the way to the ground by maintaining control and keeping two feet in bounds. It is not a simultaneous catch, because Tate doesn't establish a second point of contact on the ball (no is sure if he ever did) until after Jennings had possession. Therefore, there is no tie and Tate cannot be awarded the touchdown. 

People keep bringing up the offensive pass interference on the last play. While the interference did occur, it's not reviewable. Also, I've heard the argument that the precedent is to not call pass interference on Hail Mary plays at the end of games, so the refs were correct in not throwing a flag. The first part is actually true; however, the precedent (assuming the new refs even knew of it) is only in place because there are usually multiple instances of pass interference on such plays and a clear call is difficult to make.  This was not at all the case here. The defense played clean coverage until first contact with the ball was made; there was a single, clear-cut instance of offensive pass interference on the play. It should have been called, but the interference had nothing to do with the eventual ignorant interpretation of the rules.

This is probably the most trivial of all my points, but the second official did not signal incomplete, interception or to stop the clock. As far as I know, there is no signal for interception in the NFL, only a signal for a touchdown and a catch. The signal he gave was for a touchback, for which the only logical conclusion is an interception in this instance.

At this point, unfortunately, the facts don't make a difference. The league is firm in its decision to uphold the Seahawks victory and all the petitions and threatening phone calls to the commissioner's office aren't going to change anything.

But as I wrap this up, the real NFL season is now underway. The veteran refs are back and the replacement refs are back in their mothers' basements and their Lingerie League jobs. And as the Browns prepare to lose to the Ravens, I would like to point out that the first penalty called in this game was against the Browns defense in Baltimore. Good call refs. I guess the standing ovation before kickoff wasn't enough; way to set yourselves up for another round of cheers.

It thoroughly sucks that the integrity of the NFL demanded a Packers loss as a price, but the return of the refs is a huge relief for everyone and I'm thrilled it got done. One last awesome thing to come out of this debacle is all the memes. There are some really clever ones out there and I was inspired to make a couple myself:

-De

State of The Union

Jan 24th, 2011

Tomorrow night Mr Barrack Obama will address the country in the traditional State of the Union address. Tomorrow night our local channels will be flooded with Obama's image, and we will hear..nothing new. We will watch, however. We will listen and continue to affirm our faith in Obama's campaign, or listen carefully to his words and try to pick them apart. Albeit split, every American hopes to hear evidence that the state of our union will improve. The State of the Union is not a breaking news press conference where Obama will reveal that we can now harness the energy of the tides (Plus 1 clean-green job for the moon, good luck getting that W-2 form there though...also healthcare's gonna be a bitch). I see it as a rallying speech for Americans, so that in the hour while Obama lays out the "plan" and drops morale boosting key-words our pessimistic feelings might be lifted.

Who knows, perhaps Mr. Moon and Obama cracked out a deal. I will be watching tomorrow night, but not with bates of breath.

Of course unrelated..the coolest person ever got me glow-n-the-dark shoelaces. So glow in the dark I believe they have some dark energy that allow them to glow-n-the-light.

Other brief- De's solo singing career is taking off. Today he dropped his cover/mix of Angel and Airwaves' Hallucinations and Flight of Apollo. Personally I think dmoney's performance, and his lack of whiny West Coast articulation makes this track excellently enjoyable.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bljfebqVhTs



And lastlike.

GO PACK GO!!!!!


-Mi