The Packers finished with a healthy 11-5 record last year and could have done better. Many believe they threw the final game of the season against Minnesota and I find it really easy to buy into this theory. A loss to the Vikings in week 17 meant keeping the Bears out of the playoffs and avoiding another post-bye week blowout like the year before (20-37, Giants). This strategy didn't make much of a difference in the end; however, as the Packers won a playoff game they wouldn't have had to play against the Vikings the following week, then proceeded to be exposed by the Niners in the Divisional round. This means the Packers were essentially a 12-4 team, 13-3 if you consider the blown call by the replacement refs in the Seattle game. A 13-3 record with an average defense and under-performing offense........it's difficult to believe they won't have at least 13 wins this year.
The Packers have been reminded of a very important lesson these past couple of seasons; winning the Super Bowl is not about as much about talent as it is about matchups and momentum.
The Packers have been reminded of a very important lesson these past couple of seasons; winning the Super Bowl is not about as much about talent as it is about matchups and momentum.
Schedule
By no means do the Packers have an easy schedule. In fact, they have the 6th strongest schedule, according to NFL.com (.533 SOS rating), based on the performances of their opponents in 2012. Their opponents include the Super Bowl champion Ravens, the NFC Conference champion 49ers and, of course, 6 games in what could be the toughest division in the NFL. Yet, the Packers have one major advantage: no back-to-back road games for the first time in decades. This will help them to avoid losing streaks and maintain positive momentum.
Improved Defense
The pass rush has to be better this year. With the return of Nick Perry and the addition of Datone Jones, the upgraded front 7 should be able to take some pressure off the secondary. Perhaps the biggest question mark for the defense is their ability to stop the read-option. They should be slightly less taken aback by it this year, as they have had all of the off-season, training camp and preseason to prepare. Also, they have an abundance of film from last year on how not to stop it. Perhaps the most important variable in the Packers' formula to counter the read-option is the play of MLB Brad Jones. He is replacing Desmond Bishop, who has proven to be a stout defender, in more than one sense of the word. While he is very effective against the run, he is far too slow for the QB spy role, which is necessary against the read-option. Brad Jones is the faster linebacker and should do a better job keeping contain on mobile quarterbacks.
Balanced Offense
Last year, when Aaron Rodgers was asked about the Packers' need to improve the running game, he responded, "Do we need to? I think this is a pass happy league, so I think it's got to start with the pass with us." Lately, however, he has acknowledged the greater need for a running game, both to neutralize the pass rush of opposing defenses and provide another dimension of play-making potential. 2nd round draft pick Eddie Lacy could give the Packers' what they only had a glimpse of last season with Cedric Benson: a strong power running game.
Improved Offensive Line?
Aaron Rodgers was the most sacked QB last season, so it's hard to imagine some progress won't be made by the offensive line in 2013. But I believe there is room for a good deal more optimism. The Packers made improving the offensive line a priority during this year's draft, without sacrificing picks in the early rounds and drafting guys too early. Brian Bulaga's season ending injury, though seemingly detrimental to the offense, may have very little effect on the overall performance of the line. Despite his elite potential, Bulaga gave a very inconsistent performance in 2012, allowing too many edge rushers to beat him. Also, he only played 9 games last year due to an injury that has since been reaggravated. This season, the Packers planned to have Bulaga start at left tackle, but Bulaga's injury has allowed rookie David Bakhtiari to take over on the blind side. Bakhtiari has impressed thus far in pass protection and could be a positive difference maker for the offense. My favorite change to the O-line is the moving of Josh Sitton from right guard to left guard, which allows him to help the rookie protect against the NFL's better pass rushers.
Bold Predictions
Since I did not make my Packers' Super Bowl win prediction public before the 2010-2011 season, few believed me after the fact. So, here are all of my predictions for this season:
Packers will dominate the NFC North and go 5-1 (Not the boldest of predictions, but all the new talent in this division will prove to provide very little meaningful resistance against the Packers.
Packers will go 14-2, losing only to the 49ers and once to the Lions (in Detroit of course).
Super Bowl: Packers over Broncos in a Super Bowl XXXII rematch (Someone may have to hold Elway back to keep him off the field)
Improved Defense
The pass rush has to be better this year. With the return of Nick Perry and the addition of Datone Jones, the upgraded front 7 should be able to take some pressure off the secondary. Perhaps the biggest question mark for the defense is their ability to stop the read-option. They should be slightly less taken aback by it this year, as they have had all of the off-season, training camp and preseason to prepare. Also, they have an abundance of film from last year on how not to stop it. Perhaps the most important variable in the Packers' formula to counter the read-option is the play of MLB Brad Jones. He is replacing Desmond Bishop, who has proven to be a stout defender, in more than one sense of the word. While he is very effective against the run, he is far too slow for the QB spy role, which is necessary against the read-option. Brad Jones is the faster linebacker and should do a better job keeping contain on mobile quarterbacks.
Balanced Offense
Last year, when Aaron Rodgers was asked about the Packers' need to improve the running game, he responded, "Do we need to? I think this is a pass happy league, so I think it's got to start with the pass with us." Lately, however, he has acknowledged the greater need for a running game, both to neutralize the pass rush of opposing defenses and provide another dimension of play-making potential. 2nd round draft pick Eddie Lacy could give the Packers' what they only had a glimpse of last season with Cedric Benson: a strong power running game.
Improved Offensive Line?
Aaron Rodgers was the most sacked QB last season, so it's hard to imagine some progress won't be made by the offensive line in 2013. But I believe there is room for a good deal more optimism. The Packers made improving the offensive line a priority during this year's draft, without sacrificing picks in the early rounds and drafting guys too early. Brian Bulaga's season ending injury, though seemingly detrimental to the offense, may have very little effect on the overall performance of the line. Despite his elite potential, Bulaga gave a very inconsistent performance in 2012, allowing too many edge rushers to beat him. Also, he only played 9 games last year due to an injury that has since been reaggravated. This season, the Packers planned to have Bulaga start at left tackle, but Bulaga's injury has allowed rookie David Bakhtiari to take over on the blind side. Bakhtiari has impressed thus far in pass protection and could be a positive difference maker for the offense. My favorite change to the O-line is the moving of Josh Sitton from right guard to left guard, which allows him to help the rookie protect against the NFL's better pass rushers.
Bold Predictions
Since I did not make my Packers' Super Bowl win prediction public before the 2010-2011 season, few believed me after the fact. So, here are all of my predictions for this season:
Packers will dominate the NFC North and go 5-1 (Not the boldest of predictions, but all the new talent in this division will prove to provide very little meaningful resistance against the Packers.
Packers will go 14-2, losing only to the 49ers and once to the Lions (in Detroit of course).
Super Bowl: Packers over Broncos in a Super Bowl XXXII rematch (Someone may have to hold Elway back to keep him off the field)
Other Predictions Around the League
The Ravens will not repeat or even win the AFC North
The Bears will again miss the playoffs despite a strong regular season performance
The Seahawks and Cowboys will make-up the NFC Wildcard picture
The Colts and Ravens will earn the AFC Wildcard spots
Division winners:
AFC East - Patriots
AFC North - Bengals
AFC South - Texans
AFC West - Broncos
NFC East - Redskins
NFC North - Packers
NFC South - Falcons
NFC West - 49ers
-De
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